A UEFA Champions League knockout draw and odds update algorithm based on Pagerank and Hidden Markov Chain

Abstract

This study introduces an innovative UEFA Champions League knockout draw and odds update algorithm, which builds upon the PageRank algorithm and incorporates a hidden Markov chain. In contrast to traditional odds updates that solely rely on teams’ historical performance and expert evaluation, this approach takes into account the actual competition between teams throughout the season. To capture the teams’ strength and performance during the season more accurately, this study proposes a model grounded in the PageRank algorithm. By analyzing the results of matches between teams in the Champions League knockout stage, it calculates the rank score for each team. Compared to traditional odds updates, the method employed in this study dynamically reflects the actual competition between teams, enhancing the accuracy of the draw. Furthermore, this study incorporates a hidden Markov chain model, which integrates factors such as the team’s historical record, draw results, and odds changes to further refine the odds update process. Hidden Markov chain models capture the temporal relationship between game results, enabling better predictions of teams’ future performance. By merging the PageRank algorithm with the Hidden Markov Chain model, this study establishes a comprehensive UEFA Champions League knockout draw and odds update algorithm, serving as a more precise and dependable reference for football gambling. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm achieves impressive results in predicting the odds of the Champions League knockout stage, exhibiting higher accuracy and stability compared to traditional methods. This study offers a novel approach and method for updating odds in football gambling, possessing significant theoretical and practical value.