Research on Valuation Revision of Chinese Steel Enterprises under the Dual Carbon Background — Core Indicator Analysis from a Quantitative Finance Perspective

Abstract

Against the backdrop of China’s dual carbon goals of “peaking carbon before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality before 2060,” the traditional price-to-book ratio (PB) valuation method for steel companies is insufficient to quantify the long-term value generated by green transformation, leading to serious distortions in corporate valuation. This paper takes 32 listed steel companies on the Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share markets from 2019 to 2024 as a sample. It employs a three-stage quantitative framework of “core indicator screening - weight calculation - valuation correction,”combined with random forest models and multiple regression analysis, to identify key valuation drivers and construct a corrected valuation model. The results show that the core valuation indicators are: green investment ratio (27.3%), capital turnover rate (24.6%), carbon emissions per unit of output (19.8%), and credit loan ratio (16.2%). These indicators account for a cumulative 87.9% of the valuation fluctuations. After using the corrected model , the valuation error of the traditional PB model (14.3%) is reduced to within 1%, and for every 1 percentage point increase in the green investment ratio, the corporate valuation premium increases by 1.7% (p<0.01).