The Long-Term Impact of Push Notification Timing and Frequency on Customer Loyalty: A Causal Analysis of ROI and User Behavior

Abstract

This study investigates the causal effects of promotional push notifications on short-term ROI, long-term retention, and user heterogeneity. Results show that while promotions drive short-term revenue growth (H1), these effects are mediated by repeat purchases (H2) and fail to sustain longterm loyalty (H3). Theoretically, this work bridges the gap between short-term promotional gains and lasting customer outcomes, while practically emphasizing precision targeting to maximize ROI and preserve loyalty. Despite limitations in proxy user identification, dataset generalizability, and potential confounding, the study highlights future directions such as real user data, randomized testing, multichannel strategies, and adaptive algorithms to balance immediate profit with enduring engagement.